AShopper movement120 stores
Investigate the shopper shift
The six-pack range holds its volume while Classic declines. Switching adds evidence of movement toward another brand.
The decision
Investigate different things in different stores.
Classic declines in every group. The combination of performance, shopper movement and assortment evidence changes what the team should do next.
BEstablished demand120 stores
Protect the locally important pack
Classic ranks fifth by current pack volume but second by native assortment score among these six packs.
CExecution constrained120 stores
Repair execution before judging demand
Classic's weekly sales and eligible in-stock both weaken late in the period. Availability needs investigation before a range decision.
Read across the evidence
The headline decline hides three different patterns.
| Observed measure | Group A | Group B | Group C |
|---|---|---|---|
| Six-pack net unit change · CP | 0.0% | +3.0% | −11.5% |
| Classic net unit change · CP | −20.0% | −4.8% | −33.3% |
| Classic eligible in-stock · CP | 95% | 98% | 78% |
| Classic current sales index · Switching | 88 | 98 | 76 |
| Classic score rank within six · AP | 5 of 6 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 6 |
| Classic exclusive repeater share · AP | 2% | 8% | 4% |
CP: 13 weeks vs prior 13. Switching: 26 weeks vs prior 26. AP: 52 weeks. The reports use different populations and channel scopes. Each reading keeps its own denominator.
Built from Charter evidence. Native sales and in-stock components, native Switching levers, and native assortment measures support this investigation. Percent changes, indices, ratios and six-pack ranks are transparent calculations. Recommendations are advisory judgment.
Performance and execution
Locate the change.
Compare the six-pack range, then inspect the timing of Classic's sales and availability.
Group A · Shopper movement · 120 stores
A flat range can hide a changing mix.
Classic loses volume while other packs gain. Availability stays relatively strong. The separate Switching report shows a loss to Brand Meridian, but it does not explain every unit of the shorter sales period.
Follow the whole range, then the pack.
Store-fulfilled net POS, all tender types, including return deductions. Prior: March 7 to June 5, 2026. Current: June 6 to September 4, 2026. One pack is one selling unit, so different pack sizes are not equivalent consumption volume.
Current net units Prior net units
Original 6-pack+5.3%
Cocoa 6-pack+14.3%
Variety 12-pack+9.1%
Fruit 6-pack0.0%
Value 18-pack−25.0%
Classic 8-pack−20.0%
| Pack | Prior net units | Current net units | Unit change | Current retail sales | Unit share change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original 6-pack | 29,640 | 31,200 | +5.3% | $108,576 | +1.4 pp |
| Cocoa 6-pack | 21,840 | 24,960 | +14.3% | $91,853 | +2.8 pp |
| Variety 12-pack | 17,160 | 18,720 | +9.1% | $109,512 | +1.4 pp |
| Fruit 6-pack | 15,600 | 15,600 | 0.0% | $53,820 | 0.0 pp |
| Value 18-pack | 12,480 | 9,360 | −25.0% | $73,476 | −2.8 pp |
| Classic 8-pack | 15,600 | 12,480 | −20.0% | $47,674 | −2.8 pp |
| Six-pack total | 112,320 | 112,320 | 0.0% | $484,910 | 0.0 pp |
Shares describe these six supplier packs. Retail dollars are net sales at Walmart. They do not represent supplier revenue or profit.
Did the change happen throughout the period?
Aligned week positions for the two adjacent periods. Separate scales keep units and in-stock distinct. The vertical marker separates the first five current weeks from the remaining eight for a descriptive comparison.
First 5 current weeks1,080 units / week
95% eligible in-stock · 100.0% eligibility coverage
Remaining 8 current weeks885 units / week
95% eligible in-stock · 100.0% eligibility coverage
Eligible in-stock = summed daily in-stock contributions ÷ summed daily eligible records. Eligibility coverage = eligible records ÷ possible item-store-days. The windows differ in length, so compare weekly rates. Seasonality, availability and eligibility changes are unresolved; this is not a causal test.
Inspect all 13 weekly observations and denominators
Current period. The Excel companion also contains every prior-period row. Numerators are in-stock contributions, not counts of fully in-stock days.
| Week ending | Net units | Net retail sales | In-stock contribution | Eligible records | In-stock | Eligibility coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | 1,140 | $4,355 | 798 | 840 | 95.0% | 100.0% |
| 2026-06-19 | 1,110 | $4,240 | 798 | 840 | 95.0% | 100.0% |
| 2026-06-26 | 1,080 | $4,126 | 798 | 840 | 95.0% | 100.0% |
| 2026-07-03 | 1,050 | $4,011 | 798 | 840 | 95.0% | 100.0% |
| 2026-07-10 | 1,020 | $3,896 | 798 | 840 | 95.0% | 100.0% |
| 2026-07-17 | 990 | $3,782 | 798 | 840 | 95.0% | 100.0% |
| 2026-07-24 | 960 | $3,667 | 798 | 840 | 95.0% | 100.0% |
| 2026-07-31 | 930 | $3,553 | 798 | 840 | 95.0% | 100.0% |
| 2026-08-07 | 900 | $3,438 | 798 | 840 | 95.0% | 100.0% |
| 2026-08-14 | 870 | $3,323 | 798 | 840 | 95.0% | 100.0% |
| 2026-08-21 | 840 | $3,209 | 798 | 840 | 95.0% | 100.0% |
| 2026-08-28 | 810 | $3,094 | 798 | 840 | 95.0% | 100.0% |
| 2026-09-04 | 780 | $2,980 | 798 | 840 | 95.0% | 100.0% |
Group B · Established demand · 120 stores
Low volume does not tell the whole story.
The range grows modestly. Classic's lower volume sits beside a stronger assortment score, a higher Loyal Sales share and more exclusive repeaters than in the other groups. Those signals warrant a fuller review of its role.
Follow the whole range, then the pack.
Store-fulfilled net POS, all tender types, including return deductions. Prior: March 7 to June 5, 2026. Current: June 6 to September 4, 2026. One pack is one selling unit, so different pack sizes are not equivalent consumption volume.
Current net units Prior net units
Original 6-pack+5.9%
Cocoa 6-pack0.0%
Variety 12-pack+7.1%
Fruit 6-pack0.0%
Value 18-pack+5.3%
Classic 8-pack−4.8%
| Pack | Prior net units | Current net units | Unit change | Current retail sales | Unit share change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original 6-pack | 26,520 | 28,080 | +5.9% | $97,157 | +0.6 pp |
| Cocoa 6-pack | 21,840 | 21,840 | 0.0% | $81,245 | −0.5 pp |
| Variety 12-pack | 21,840 | 23,400 | +7.1% | $138,528 | +0.7 pp |
| Fruit 6-pack | 12,480 | 12,480 | 0.0% | $43,306 | −0.3 pp |
| Value 18-pack | 29,640 | 31,200 | +5.3% | $247,104 | +0.5 pp |
| Classic 8-pack | 16,380 | 15,600 | −4.8% | $61,620 | −1.0 pp |
| Six-pack total | 128,700 | 132,600 | +3.0% | $668,959 | 0.0 pp |
Shares describe these six supplier packs. Retail dollars are net sales at Walmart. They do not represent supplier revenue or profit.
Did the change happen throughout the period?
Aligned week positions for the two adjacent periods. Separate scales keep units and in-stock distinct. The vertical marker separates the first five current weeks from the remaining eight for a descriptive comparison.
First 5 current weeks1,240 units / week
98% eligible in-stock · 95.2% eligibility coverage
Remaining 8 current weeks1,175 units / week
98% eligible in-stock · 95.2% eligibility coverage
Eligible in-stock = summed daily in-stock contributions ÷ summed daily eligible records. Eligibility coverage = eligible records ÷ possible item-store-days. The windows differ in length, so compare weekly rates. Seasonality, availability and eligibility changes are unresolved; this is not a causal test.
Inspect all 13 weekly observations and denominators
Current period. The Excel companion also contains every prior-period row. Numerators are in-stock contributions, not counts of fully in-stock days.
| Week ending | Net units | Net retail sales | In-stock contribution | Eligible records | In-stock | Eligibility coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | 1,260 | $4,977 | 784 | 800 | 98.0% | 95.2% |
| 2026-06-19 | 1,250 | $4,938 | 784 | 800 | 98.0% | 95.2% |
| 2026-06-26 | 1,240 | $4,898 | 784 | 800 | 98.0% | 95.2% |
| 2026-07-03 | 1,230 | $4,859 | 784 | 800 | 98.0% | 95.2% |
| 2026-07-10 | 1,220 | $4,819 | 784 | 800 | 98.0% | 95.2% |
| 2026-07-17 | 1,210 | $4,780 | 784 | 800 | 98.0% | 95.2% |
| 2026-07-24 | 1,200 | $4,740 | 784 | 800 | 98.0% | 95.2% |
| 2026-07-31 | 1,190 | $4,701 | 784 | 800 | 98.0% | 95.2% |
| 2026-08-07 | 1,180 | $4,661 | 784 | 800 | 98.0% | 95.2% |
| 2026-08-14 | 1,170 | $4,622 | 784 | 800 | 98.0% | 95.2% |
| 2026-08-21 | 1,160 | $4,582 | 784 | 800 | 98.0% | 95.2% |
| 2026-08-28 | 1,150 | $4,543 | 784 | 800 | 98.0% | 95.2% |
| 2026-09-04 | 1,140 | $4,503 | 784 | 800 | 98.0% | 95.2% |
Group C · Execution constrained · 120 stores
The timing changes the investigation.
The first five weeks look very different from the remaining eight. Sales weaken alongside eligible in-stock, while the number of eligible records also changes. This is a reason to investigate execution, not proof of a lost-sales amount.
Follow the whole range, then the pack.
Store-fulfilled net POS, all tender types, including return deductions. Prior: March 7 to June 5, 2026. Current: June 6 to September 4, 2026. One pack is one selling unit, so different pack sizes are not equivalent consumption volume.
Current net units Prior net units
Original 6-pack−6.7%
Cocoa 6-pack−7.7%
Variety 12-pack−11.1%
Fruit 6-pack−14.3%
Value 18-pack−9.1%
Classic 8-pack−33.3%
| Pack | Prior net units | Current net units | Unit change | Current retail sales | Unit share change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original 6-pack | 23,400 | 21,840 | −6.7% | $74,911 | +1.3 pp |
| Cocoa 6-pack | 20,280 | 18,720 | −7.7% | $68,328 | +0.9 pp |
| Variety 12-pack | 14,040 | 12,480 | −11.1% | $72,384 | +0.1 pp |
| Fruit 6-pack | 10,920 | 9,360 | −14.3% | $32,011 | −0.4 pp |
| Value 18-pack | 17,160 | 15,600 | −9.1% | $121,680 | +0.5 pp |
| Classic 8-pack | 9,360 | 6,240 | −33.3% | $24,336 | −2.4 pp |
| Six-pack total | 95,160 | 84,240 | −11.5% | $393,650 | 0.0 pp |
Shares describe these six supplier packs. Retail dollars are net sales at Walmart. They do not represent supplier revenue or profit.
Did the change happen throughout the period?
Aligned week positions for the two adjacent periods. Separate scales keep units and in-stock distinct. The vertical marker separates the first five current weeks from the remaining eight for a descriptive comparison.
First 5 current weeks706 units / week
96% eligible in-stock · 95.2% eligibility coverage
Remaining 8 current weeks338.75 units / week
66% eligible in-stock · 89.3% eligibility coverage
Eligible in-stock = summed daily in-stock contributions ÷ summed daily eligible records. Eligibility coverage = eligible records ÷ possible item-store-days. The windows differ in length, so compare weekly rates. Seasonality, availability and eligibility changes are unresolved; this is not a causal test.
Inspect all 13 weekly observations and denominators
Current period. The Excel companion also contains every prior-period row. Numerators are in-stock contributions, not counts of fully in-stock days.
| Week ending | Net units | Net retail sales | In-stock contribution | Eligible records | In-stock | Eligibility coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | 720 | $2,808 | 776 | 800 | 97.0% | 95.2% |
| 2026-06-19 | 730 | $2,847 | 776 | 800 | 97.0% | 95.2% |
| 2026-06-26 | 710 | $2,769 | 776 | 800 | 97.0% | 95.2% |
| 2026-07-03 | 720 | $2,808 | 776 | 800 | 97.0% | 95.2% |
| 2026-07-10 | 650 | $2,535 | 736 | 800 | 92.0% | 95.2% |
| 2026-07-17 | 590 | $2,301 | 686.4 | 780 | 88.0% | 92.9% |
| 2026-07-24 | 500 | $1,950 | 631.8 | 780 | 81.0% | 92.9% |
| 2026-07-31 | 430 | $1,677 | 585 | 780 | 75.0% | 92.9% |
| 2026-08-07 | 370 | $1,443 | 532 | 760 | 70.0% | 90.5% |
| 2026-08-14 | 290 | $1,131 | 471.2 | 760 | 62.0% | 90.5% |
| 2026-08-21 | 220 | $858 | 408.8 | 730 | 56.0% | 86.9% |
| 2026-08-28 | 170 | $663 | 340.8 | 710 | 48.0% | 84.5% |
| 2026-09-04 | 140 | $546 | 304 | 700 | 43.4% | 83.3% |
Shopper and assortment evidence
Understand the pack's role.
Trace the native Switching levers and compare volume with native assortment measures. Use the pack selector to inspect each item.
Group A · Shopper movement · 120 stores
Investigate the shopper shift
Examine which existing products are gaining within the category, then review the range with the merchant.
Where did Classic's shopper sales change come from?
Card-identified, Buy In-Store shoppers, Continuous Panel explicitly retained. Two adjacent 26-week periods: September 6, 2025 to March 6, 2026, then March 7 to September 4, 2026. Three independent native levers reconcile prior and current Sales Value.
Prior 100Current 88
Category new / lapsed−1.0
Category expansion / contraction−2.0
Group Switching−9.0
Index points = each signed native dollar change ÷ prior native sales × 100. Prior = 100. This is our normalization, not a native Fair Share Index.
Expand Group Switching
| Rest-of-category group | Index points |
|---|---|
| Brand Meridian | −7.0 |
| Remaining category | −2.0 |
Brand Meridian is fictional and represents a comparator selected from the native category-to-brand hierarchy. Remaining category excludes both Classic and Meridian. These rows are already included in Group Switching above.
Prior $40,000Current $35,200
Category new / lapsed−$400
Category expansion / contraction−$800
Group Switching−$3,600
Native Sales Value and signed Net Difference amounts within the Switching report. These values belong to its shopper population and cannot reconcile to CP retail sales.
Expand Group Switching
| Rest-of-category group | Native dollar change |
|---|---|
| Brand Meridian | −$2,800 |
| Remaining category | −$800 |
Brand Meridian is fictional and represents a comparator selected from the native category-to-brand hierarchy. Remaining category excludes both Classic and Meridian. These rows are already included in Group Switching above.
What does the sales ranking miss?
AP covers 52 weeks, August 30, 2025 to August 28, 2026, using a separate traceable-card population. The custom-store group uses all available basket channels. CP covers 13 weeks ending September 4 and store-fulfilled net POS. AP ends one week earlier. Each dot places the same pack's two measures side by side; it does not join customers or align the populations.
Scroll the chart sideways to see all six packs.
| Pack | Fixed-store velocity · CP | Native score · AP | Score rank within six | Loyal Sales | Exclusivity / category repeaters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 · Original 6-pack | 20.0 | 0.85 | 1 of 6 | 60% | 115 / 2,300 = 5% |
| S2 · Cocoa 6-pack | 16.0 | 0.76 | 2 of 6 | 56% | 72 / 1,800 = 4% |
| S3 · Variety 12-pack | 12.0 | 0.68 | 3 of 6 | 53% | 42 / 1,400 = 3% |
| S4 · Fruit 6-pack | 10.0 | 0.59 | 4 of 6 | 44% | 22 / 1,100 = 2% |
| S5 · Value 18-pack | 6.0 | 0.38 | 6 of 6 | 33% | 7 / 700 = 1% |
| S6 · Classic 8-pack | 8.0 | 0.47 | 5 of 6 | 35% | 20 / 1,000 = 2% |
Understand the assortment measures
Composite Score is a native output from the fixed Performance Score configuration. Higher is better on a 0 to 1 scale. We rank the six displayed scores; we do not recreate the proprietary score or a category-wide recommendation.
Loyal Sales is the share of product sales from loyal Walmart customers. It does not measure loyalty to the pack.
Exclusive repeater share divides native Exclusivity customers by that product's Category Repeaters. It describes product customers who repeated the category and bought no other product in it. It does not predict what happens after removal.
Fixed-store velocity divides CP net units by 120 predefined stores and 13 weeks. It is our transparent calculation, not native UPSPW with its valid-store denominator.
Group B · Established demand · 120 stores
Protect the locally important pack
Keep Classic in the discussion. Review the category context before proposing a range change.
Where did Classic's shopper sales change come from?
Card-identified, Buy In-Store shoppers, Continuous Panel explicitly retained. Two adjacent 26-week periods: September 6, 2025 to March 6, 2026, then March 7 to September 4, 2026. Three independent native levers reconcile prior and current Sales Value.
Prior 100Current 98
Category new / lapsed−1.0
Category expansion / contraction−1.0
Group Switching0.0
Index points = each signed native dollar change ÷ prior native sales × 100. Prior = 100. This is our normalization, not a native Fair Share Index.
Expand Group Switching
| Rest-of-category group | Index points |
|---|---|
| Brand Meridian | −1.0 |
| Remaining category | +1.0 |
Brand Meridian is fictional and represents a comparator selected from the native category-to-brand hierarchy. Remaining category excludes both Classic and Meridian. These rows are already included in Group Switching above.
Prior $52,000Current $50,960
Category new / lapsed−$520
Category expansion / contraction−$520
Group Switching+$0
Native Sales Value and signed Net Difference amounts within the Switching report. These values belong to its shopper population and cannot reconcile to CP retail sales.
Expand Group Switching
| Rest-of-category group | Native dollar change |
|---|---|
| Brand Meridian | −$520 |
| Remaining category | +$520 |
Brand Meridian is fictional and represents a comparator selected from the native category-to-brand hierarchy. Remaining category excludes both Classic and Meridian. These rows are already included in Group Switching above.
What does the sales ranking miss?
AP covers 52 weeks, August 30, 2025 to August 28, 2026, using a separate traceable-card population. The custom-store group uses all available basket channels. CP covers 13 weeks ending September 4 and store-fulfilled net POS. AP ends one week earlier. Each dot places the same pack's two measures side by side; it does not join customers or align the populations.
Scroll the chart sideways to see all six packs.
| Pack | Fixed-store velocity · CP | Native score · AP | Score rank within six | Loyal Sales | Exclusivity / category repeaters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 · Original 6-pack | 18.0 | 0.82 | 1 of 6 | 62% | 110 / 2,200 = 5% |
| S2 · Cocoa 6-pack | 14.0 | 0.68 | 4 of 6 | 56% | 68 / 1,700 = 4% |
| S3 · Variety 12-pack | 15.0 | 0.74 | 3 of 6 | 63% | 90 / 1,800 = 5% |
| S4 · Fruit 6-pack | 8.0 | 0.52 | 6 of 6 | 45% | 20 / 1,000 = 2% |
| S5 · Value 18-pack | 20.0 | 0.61 | 5 of 6 | 54% | 80 / 2,000 = 4% |
| S6 · Classic 8-pack | 10.0 | 0.78 | 2 of 6 | 68% | 120 / 1,500 = 8% |
Understand the assortment measures
Composite Score is a native output from the fixed Performance Score configuration. Higher is better on a 0 to 1 scale. We rank the six displayed scores; we do not recreate the proprietary score or a category-wide recommendation.
Loyal Sales is the share of product sales from loyal Walmart customers. It does not measure loyalty to the pack.
Exclusive repeater share divides native Exclusivity customers by that product's Category Repeaters. It describes product customers who repeated the category and bought no other product in it. It does not predict what happens after removal.
Fixed-store velocity divides CP net units by 120 predefined stores and 13 weeks. It is our transparent calculation, not native UPSPW with its valid-store denominator.
Group C · Execution constrained · 120 stores
Repair execution before judging demand
Inspect the affected item-store-week records, resolve the execution issue and review subsequent performance.
Where did Classic's shopper sales change come from?
Card-identified, Buy In-Store shoppers, Continuous Panel explicitly retained. Two adjacent 26-week periods: September 6, 2025 to March 6, 2026, then March 7 to September 4, 2026. Three independent native levers reconcile prior and current Sales Value.
Prior 100Current 76
Category new / lapsed−3.0
Category expansion / contraction−16.0
Group Switching−5.0
Index points = each signed native dollar change ÷ prior native sales × 100. Prior = 100. This is our normalization, not a native Fair Share Index.
Expand Group Switching
| Rest-of-category group | Index points |
|---|---|
| Brand Meridian | −2.0 |
| Remaining category | −3.0 |
Brand Meridian is fictional and represents a comparator selected from the native category-to-brand hierarchy. Remaining category excludes both Classic and Meridian. These rows are already included in Group Switching above.
Prior $24,000Current $18,240
Category new / lapsed−$720
Category expansion / contraction−$3,840
Group Switching−$1,200
Native Sales Value and signed Net Difference amounts within the Switching report. These values belong to its shopper population and cannot reconcile to CP retail sales.
Expand Group Switching
| Rest-of-category group | Native dollar change |
|---|---|
| Brand Meridian | −$480 |
| Remaining category | −$720 |
Brand Meridian is fictional and represents a comparator selected from the native category-to-brand hierarchy. Remaining category excludes both Classic and Meridian. These rows are already included in Group Switching above.
What does the sales ranking miss?
AP covers 52 weeks, August 30, 2025 to August 28, 2026, using a separate traceable-card population. The custom-store group uses all available basket channels. CP covers 13 weeks ending September 4 and store-fulfilled net POS. AP ends one week earlier. Each dot places the same pack's two measures side by side; it does not join customers or align the populations.
Scroll the chart sideways to see all six packs.
| Pack | Fixed-store velocity · CP | Native score · AP | Score rank within six | Loyal Sales | Exclusivity / category repeaters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 · Original 6-pack | 14.0 | 0.81 | 1 of 6 | 58% | 80 / 1,600 = 5% |
| S2 · Cocoa 6-pack | 12.0 | 0.73 | 2 of 6 | 54% | 56 / 1,400 = 4% |
| S3 · Variety 12-pack | 8.0 | 0.64 | 3 of 6 | 56% | 30 / 1,000 = 3% |
| S4 · Fruit 6-pack | 6.0 | 0.55 | 4 of 6 | 48% | 16 / 800 = 2% |
| S5 · Value 18-pack | 10.0 | 0.46 | 5 of 6 | 50% | 33 / 1,100 = 3% |
| S6 · Classic 8-pack | 4.0 | 0.31 | 6 of 6 | 51% | 32 / 800 = 4% |
Understand the assortment measures
Composite Score is a native output from the fixed Performance Score configuration. Higher is better on a 0 to 1 scale. We rank the six displayed scores; we do not recreate the proprietary score or a category-wide recommendation.
Loyal Sales is the share of product sales from loyal Walmart customers. It does not measure loyalty to the pack.
Exclusive repeater share divides native Exclusivity customers by that product's Category Repeaters. It describes product customers who repeated the category and bought no other product in it. It does not predict what happens after removal.
Fixed-store velocity divides CP net units by 120 predefined stores and 13 weeks. It is our transparent calculation, not native UPSPW with its valid-store denominator.
Use a scope the native report can support. Single-item results for a 120-store group require adequate traceable-customer data and suitable permissions. If Charter cannot produce the cut, broaden the scope and relabel the analysis. This example uses Assortment Performance and does not depend on ordering Customer Priority or Customer Decisions.
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